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Hello, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are above fair value. So far, it looks like we’re going to see some buying at the open on Tuesday morning. Now, yesterday was all about the Nasdaq and it was really overdone, but it is what it is. So the Nasdaq move higher. So far, support at 13,125 is holding. The biggest reason the Nasdaq popped yesterday was NVIDIA, which is up over 8%. No justification for that move, and I certainly wouldn’t chase it up here. Earnings are coming out later this week, and it looks like it’s going to be a buy the rumors, sell the news type situation. Of course, I could be wrong, but up at these levels, it’s not worth chasing NVIDIA. Now, a lot of the other tech stocks also moved higher. We had Tesla up as well. Tesla is getting pretty close to a buy signal here. We’re looking for a close above $240.23 on Tuesday for Tesla. Need a little more work for Apple and Meta. Microsoft traded up into the channel yesterday, so a close above 325.49 would give us a buy signal on Tuesday and no joy for Shopify.
Now the Dow dragged most of yesterday. And if you’re watching the news or listening to the news on the radio, of course, they’re going to focus on the Dow. Now the Dow dragged yesterday because of Johnson & Johnson, but it really doesn’t affect Johnson & Johnson shareholders. They’re spinning off a company. So while the stock was down, it really doesn’t hurt the wallets of Johnson & Johnson shareholders. Now, when we look at sector activity, the majority of sectors in the US were actually down yesterday. It was Infotech, of course, was the big leader. That’s also true in Canada, where only two of the sectors were up yesterday, Infotech and Materials. Otherwise, the rest of the market was down. Now, one stock that stood out to for me on Monday was Goldman Sachs, which continued to move lower. It has now filled the open gap. We’re still projecting lower prices here, but obviously, the support from the lows in late June and early July down at 312.50, that’s going to be a big area of support and certainly a big tell for the market if Goldman Sachs were to break through that. So far, 320.31 is holding and that gap has now been filled.
So we’ll have to see if Goldman Sachs can turn around at this point. Now, what didn’t work yesterday or what didn’t move in favor of the stock market moving higher was interest rates. The five-year yield, the 10-year yield, and the 30-year yield all moved up on Monday, and that’s not going to help the stock market over the long term. So we’ll just have to see how long yesterday’s enthusiasm lasts. Currencies, we saw the US dollar index pull back ever so slightly just five ticks, and we saw the euro move up as well, but certainly no major changes in trend for either of those currencies. Now moving over looking at commodity prices, we saw the price of crude oil trade up into the channel, but then pulled back and closed slightly lower on the day. We saw a little move up in natural gas, but no change in trend. The price of wheat, which people continually ask me about, is pretty stable right now. It’s still on a sell signal, still trading below the lower channel line. We recently put in a double top. Will we put in a double bottom? Well, we should be able to find that out over the next few days.
Then looking at copper, it moved up yesterday. That helped some of the mining stocks. We also saw gold move up, but not that much. Silver is back on a buy signal. But if we take a look at gold, you can see we’ve made a series of major lower high and a lower low recently, so that is still very bearish. We are coming down to the bottom of the panic zones, a pressure zone is starting to form. Major support is not that far away back down at the lows from late February. And if those don’t hold at the 1875 level, if we look on the weekly chart here, you can see 1750 would be our next target below that. And of course, that would match up with our longer term projections on the weekly panic zone chart. Those haven’t happened yet. We haven’t broken down, and silver is turning around and heading back up. That could help pull the price of gold up, and we would certainly take a buy signal in gold if it were to happen in the not so distant future. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Have a great day.
Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.
Tuesday, August 22, 2023