This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.
Well, good morning, everyone. Welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning, things are fairly quiet. Yesterday, we were waiting for CPI numbers. This morning, we were waiting for PPI numbers. Just like yesterday, the volatility will expand after those numbers come out. Yesterday was a rather wild day. We did have the Dow up over 400 points, and then it ended the day almost unchanged. You can see how wide the bar was for the VIX, and we were closed slightly lower yesterday. Looking for a close on Friday below 14:75, that would put us back on a bullish tone and we’d start looking for buying opportunities. As I’ve mentioned several times over the past month, I’m really looking for a breakout above the Fly Paper Channel. The market has had times of stress over the past six months in which we traded up into the Fly Paper Channel and quickly reversed. And that, of course, is bullish. If we can start breaking down and get a new sell signal for the VIX, that would certainly be bullish. If we start breaking out above the Fly Paper Channel, that, of course, would add to the bearishness.
Looking at the bond market, the 30-year bond had a wild day, traded right up to the upper channel line, then came right back down and closed below the lower channel line. We saw just as much volatility in the yield, and the yield came up, filled an open gap, and looks like it wants to go back up and retest the recent high. Of course, that’s not good for the stock market if that happens. A couple of stocks in the news yesterday, both Ford and GM were down sharply yesterday and made new lows for this move. Then we had Disney. Disney was the big winner on the DAO and the S&P 500 yesterday. Nice big update. I don’t think there’s much left to go on the upside for Disney. 93.75 is our first mathematical price target, and that’s where we topped out back in June. Just above that is the bottom of the open gap at 95.11. That is certainly a possibility that we go up and retest that area. You can see that Disney has been following the moving averages quite well. The 50 day moving average acted as a resistance here and here and now we’ve moved up to the 100 day.
Is the 200 day, is that going to be resistance? Well, it certainly was back in May. The 95.11 area is certainly a legitimate target to the upside and a legitimate area of resistance. Looking at what worked on the TSX, well, it was the Brookfields were the big winners on the TSX yesterday, followed by Shopify. Shopify can’t really notice what happened there, up nearly two and a half %. Of course, Shopify is a very volatile stock and had an inside day yesterday, so we’re really not going to notice yesterday’s price action unless we break out above the previous day’s range. What didn’t work on the TSX? Well, it was Canadian Tire, gapping sharply lower yesterday. Looking at the major ETFs that we follow, there’s the Dow Diamonds trading up through the upper channel line, then closing down at the lower channel line. Certainly, a possibility of a buy signal on Friday if the market wants to turn around. There’s the S&P 500 closing almost unchanged on the day. Similar situation for the Nasdaq-100. Probably the biggest headline from Thursday’s trading action, the SOX or the semiconductors making a new low for this move on Thursday. Looking at the TSX, it had a wild day traded up through the upper channel line, then closed just below where it opened.
I guess the big headline from the Canadian market on Thursday was we filled the open gap. Now we’re going to have to see how the market moves next. We certainly have a possibility of a buy signal on Friday, but also the fact that we filled the gap may be the last move to the upside at this point. What worked on the TSX? Well, it was Telecom. Stocks were the big winners. The big losers was healthcare. There’s only a couple of stocks in the healthcare index. When I first started, before I had the Uptrend, I had a website called Just Biotechs, and I think we had 40 Canadian biotechs that we were following at that time. All of those companies are basically gone. There’s just a couple left. The biggest stock by percentages from Thursday’s trading action was Tillray, which is down over eight and a half % on the day. Then, of course, the biggest company is Bausch, which was down two and a half %, making a new low for this move. Looking at commodities, we saw a small pullback in crude oil yesterday, small pullback in gasoline, and a bigger pullback in natural gas.
If you were trading natural gas, if you had an order in at 7:81, well, guess what? That got filled at 8:05. That was the opening price on Wednesday, and then we had a nice big pullback on Thursday. We’re still on a buy signal here that would change on Friday with a close below 7:10. Then looking at energy stocks on the TSX, very small pullback there, very small pullback in New York. So no change in trend for the energy sector. Looking at the precious metals, we had a gold move lower yesterday. Silver closed slightly higher on the day, but you wouldn’t really notice it. And then looking at the stocks, the GDX was up slightly yesterday. We had the XGD up slightly yesterday and the SIL, Silver Miners down slightly on Thursday. Let’s take a look at those most actively traded stocks. We’ll use the same list we used yesterday morning just for comparison, and we’ll start off by looking at the US most actives. Let’s do a little chart workshop this morning. For each symbol in our database, we have 15 charts. When you’re first investigating a symbol, you probably want to look at all 15 charts.
Start with the monthly, work through the seven weekly, and get to the seven daily and decide whether you want to trade this stock, invest in this stock, hold it for the long term, short term, whatever you want to do, you need to do that research ahead of time. Then when it’s in your portfolio, if you’re actively managing it, then you want to look at as few charts as possible because you don’t want to have analysis paralysis. I have a custom view that includes three charts for when I’m analyzing my particular portfolio. We start off with a Panic Zones chart. What we’re looking for is either low risk buying opportunities where the stock is at the bottom of the Panic Zones and a Pressure Zone is starting to form. Or in this case, the market is coming off an overbot situation, and we know it’s overbot when it trades up to the top of the Panic Zones. So that’s overbot. Then you’re looking for early warning signals, and that’s how most symbols look right now. They’re coming off the top of the Panic Zoness and you’ve got new early warning signals. And so when I bring up my portfolio, the first thing I’m going to do is just hit the down arrow key and walk through all of my stocks.
I’m going to spend a split second on each one because I’m looking for major changes. Here’s a stock that’s had a major change this week. Here’s the early warning signal. The chart started to turn red, which would have meant sell signal. Here’s where the first sell signal came in, or the most recent sell signal, excuse me. You would have sold there. If you shorted the stock, you would have shorted it at the open the next day. Otherwise, you’re out of this stock and now you’re watching it continue to move lower. Wednesday, we saw panic selling. Yesterday was an inside day. Two things have worked out here. We are below the bottom of the Panic Zones, so that’s panic selling. And we have a new Pressure Zone forming. Now, the third part of the equation, of course, is now we need to see money come back into this stock and for it to start to move back up. We’re certainly not seeing that on Friday morning. Now, to generate a buy signal on Friday, we’re looking for a close above 37.70. Since we had a huge gap down, we’re nowhere near that at the moment, but that upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily.
So to get a new buy signal in this stock, unless something amazing happens like somebody offers to buy the company today, we’re not going to see any upward momentum that would be enough to generate a buy signal for some time. That may take several weeks, it may take a month. We’ll just have to wait and see or it may never happen. So maybe the stock is heading towards bankruptcy. I have no idea. It’s still a $30 stock, so people aren’t thinking that way at the moment. But what I can tell you is we made a high here, then we made a recently a lower high. We made a low here, and now we’re making a lower low. So I would expect that pattern of lower highs and lower lows to continue. Advanced micro devices, this one’s a little interesting and it’s one I follow, and so I’m not happy about it. But the stock is currently broken. Typically, you see selling and you get down to the bottom of the Panic Zoness and it pressures on forms and the stock starts to move back up. Of course, there’s no guarantee just how far the stock is going to move after you have a low risk buying opportunity.
For Advanced Micro Devices, we had a high here. We pulled back, Pressure Zone started to form. We were expecting it to move back up and retest the recent highs. The rally failed very quickly. Then we set up another opportunity where we should have moved up. That has failed so far. We’ve been treading water for the past month. That open gap was filled, but people still are sorry or have memories of that open gap. It’s acting as a magnet at the moment, even though it’s filled. It’s no longer an open gap. We looked at the pros in the public the other day, and they’ve been intertwined for weeks now. Nobody has any real conviction of where Advanced Micro Devices is going to go next. Lucid, nothing going on with this stock at the moment. Pen, interesting. We popped, ran up into the open gap and have pulled back. That looks like it was a one day event, not something I would have chased. We need to close on Friday below $25.01, and that’s probably likely to happen. We came down, looks like want to fill that gap. We may see a sell signal for Pen on Friday.
Tillray had a big up move. Hopefully, you’ve taken some money off the table on the way up, and now you’re watching it come back down. On Friday, we need to close in New York below $2.27, and that could happen. The stock has been very volatile over the past couple of days, so we’ll just have to wait and see. Then Amazon popped last week. It’s up through the top of the Panic Zoness. I said I wouldn’t chase it, and it hasn’t come back down to fill the gap yet, but I’m really not expecting it to be able to move past last week’s high anytime soon. Then if we go back up, there was no trend changes from Thursday’s trading action. We just continue to scan up till we get back up to Palantir. Fairly quiet trading day for Neo, still on a sell signal, no change there. Inside day on Thursday for Apple, no change there. Then looking at NVIDIA, we made a lower-low yesterday, certainly not as aggressive as the selling we saw on Wednesday. Rivian made a new low yesterday, no change there. Fairly quiet trading on Thursday for Tesla. Then looking at Palantir, fairly quiet trading for Palantir on Thursday with an inside day looking to see if we can hold the $15 level on Friday.
Next up, let’s walk through the TSX most actives, and we’re going to use the same list that we used yesterday morning. Now, as I mentioned earlier, we’re going to use the same stocks that we looked at yesterday morning. Again, I’m using a custom view of my portfolio here. You can create a custom view using any charts that you want. I just like to look at three. Remember, I’m managing a portfolio, I’m not doing analysis. This is just an example. We’re using the most actively traded stocks from Wednesday’s trading action. The first thing I’m looking for, of course, is an early warning signal. There’s only three charts in this particular view. Just hitting the right arrow key moves me through the charts for this particular symbol. And of course, hitting the down arrow key is going to take me from symbol to symbol. Looking at B2gold, there was the last early warning signal. Then the chart started to turn from blue to red. We are down at the bottom of the Panic Zoness, currently ranked as zero, and there’s a Pressure Zone forming. As you can see, the stock is not held in high regard at the moment.
The elongated Pressure Zone across the bottom of the screen tells us that the stock is broken. It’s making a series of lower highs and lower lows. Now, if you want to own this stock, well, we’ve got a ways to go. On Friday, we’re looking for a close above $4.47. That’s not likely to happen and that upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily. Where is our next price target? 391 is our next price target. Now, as I continue to scroll down, what I’m looking for, of course, is new early warning signals. Close below the previous days low is not a healthy sign, but it is not a sell signal by itself. We’re just going to scan down. No new early warning signal for Crescent Point. We had an inside day yesterday. 11:33 was our next price target. Then if we continue to move higher, the top of our projected trading range is 11.72. There’s Manulife. We’re back on a buy signal as of Thursday’s close. If we can get out above resistance, that would be 26.56. This is not a trade I’d be that interested in taking. We’re already up at the top of the Panic Zoness.
We’re coming up to resistance at 26.56. That held us in check last couple of weeks ago. It also held us in check back in April, so that’s a major area of resistance. Not sure we’re going to be able to get through it in the month of August. If we were coming into this and the overall market momentum was up, if the VIX was on a sell signal, I’d be more bullish about some of these opportunities. But when you look at manual life, we’re already up at the top of the Panic Zones. So not something I would want to chase. Again, no new early warning signal. Canadian Natural Resources currently ranked at 10, very quiet trading yesterday. Our next price target is $84.38. Then looking at Athabasca, there’s a new early warning signal up there. We made a high, had a pullback yesterday, so looking for a close below $3.51 on Friday, not expecting that to happen. We were trying to get up to 391. So far, we have not been able to do so. Then, that tillray has pulled back over the past couple of days, so hopefully, you’ve been able to lock in some profits along the way.
We’ve had two early warning signals recently and it looks like we want to pull back. There’s an open gap way down here and there’s no indication. We’re going to head back down to that level at this particular time. On Friday, we’re looking for a close below $3.01 to give us a sell signal for till rate. Then let’s finish off with Enbridge. It’s the second day of a buy signal here, so not expecting to be able to break out above $50. That acted as resistance back in July, and I would expect that to continue to act as resistance going forward. Okay, folks, that’s all for this morning’s presentation. Ppi numbers just came out. They were a little hotter than expected. Stock index futures first reaction is to the downside, but not by much. Dao future is currently down 50 points, so not a lot of reaction from the numbers so far. But just like yesterday, we’re expecting volatility to expand throughout the day. Enjoy the rest of your Friday. Enjoy your weekend. Next time you’ll hear my voices on Sunday. Next week, I won’t be doing any premarket videos. I will be working on some new tutorials, and we won’t be posting those publicly.
Again, enjoy the rest of your day, and we’ll talk to you again on Sunday.
Stephen Whiteside
Friday, August 11, 2023
