Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In this morning’s presentation, we’re going to take a look at semiconductor stocks. The reason I want to look at it today is just at the start of the year, we posted monthly price target charts, and of course, we always talk about two lines up and two lines down. That’s your playing field. We’ve made it up to the 5,000 level, and we traded above that over the last couple of days and closed just below it yesterday. We’ve made our way up to a major target, and we’re up over 19% a year to date for the SOX index. Now, when we look at the Daily Panic Zone chart for the SOX index, you can see we’ve had a bunch of early warning signals that ended up giving us a pullback. No major pullbacks, no major breakdowns. In fact, if you draw a line from the October low, we’ve got a nice uptrend, and so far, the market is willing to buy the dips. Now, We could get a pullback here to the uptrend line, and we’ll have to see if the market wants to continue to buy the dips.
If they don’t, our Panic Zone chart is actually projecting back towards where we started the year. That could It’s not going to happen at some point. It’s not going to happen on Wednesday morning, that’s for sure, but we do have a couple of early warning signals up there at the top of the screen. So far, it hasn’t done too much damage to the SOX index or the chip sector. Now, not all chip stocks are winning in 2024. When we look at Wolfspeed, we’re down over 32% year to date. Axcelis is down over 12%. We’ve got GlobalFoundries down nearly 10% for the year. We’ve got Intel down a little over 8% so far, year to date. It’ll be very interesting. If the DOW ever decided to swap Intel out and put NVIDIA in, that would certainly be a major change for the market. Now, Of course, if you’re not a stock picker, you may want to watch the ETFs, and they’re certainly some of the most actively traded ETFs on the planet. The SMH gives you the SOX index without any extra volatility. And of course, what I like is the SOXL, which is the 3X Bull ETF.
It is currently on a buy signal, of course, and we’re looking for close on Wednesday below 45.64 to give us a new daily sell signal. Now, what’s working? Of course, everybody knows NVIDIA is still the big winner. It was the big winner last year. It’s the big winner this year, and we’re up over 86% year to date. On Wednesday, we’re coming into Wednesday’s trading action. We are still trading above the upper channel line. Things would change on Wednesday. If NVIDIA were to close below $830.63, of course, our next major target to the upside is $1,000, and the market may want to move all the way up there to tag that level before pulling back. Now, Coherent is the next best-performing chip stock year to date, up over 45%. It’s traded in the channel for the past couple of days, so a close on Wednesday below 6,164 would give us a short term sell signal. Taiwan Semiconductors is up over 41 %. Then looking at Advanced Micro Devices, up over 40 %. We’ve been in the channel for the past couple of days, so a close below 195.09 on Wednesday would give us a sell signal. And then last up, we’re looking at ASML.
It’s already on a sell signal as of Monday’s close. We traded higher yesterday, so a close on Wednesday above $995.38 would give us a new short term buy signal. We’re up nearly 35% year to date. Of course, the charts we’re looking at in this presentation I have mostly been daily rightside charts. Of course, if you’re a longer term investor, you want to ignore those charts and focus on the weekly charts. You can see ASML is nowhere near a weekly sell signal. This coming Friday, if AMS sell were to close below $827.85, that would give us a new weekly sell signal. And of course, if that doesn’t happen, and we’re not expecting it to happen this week, that lower channel line is going to continue to move higher weekly. Okay, folks, that’s all I wanted to cover in this presentation. Again, the reason for the presentation is the SOX index hit a major milestone of 5,000. We have been able to trade above it for a couple of days. We’ll have to see if it turns out to be long term resistance for this sector of the market. Otherwise, the market may want to wait until NVIDIA moves all the way up to $1,000 before taking a major break.
Enjoy the rest of your day, folks. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning, and at that time, we’re going to take a closer look at Canadian Energy Stocks.
Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Wednesday, March 13, 2024
