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Morning Market Outlook

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from In the pre-market this morning, stock index futures and crude oil are below fair value, while gold is trading higher, about $5 in the pre-market on Friday morning. Now, we do have some economic numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning that could certainly change the direction of the market. Now, yesterday, Boeing was a big drag on the Dow, and it did dip through the $200 level but did not close below it. It is continuing to trade above $200 in the pre-market, and so it’ll be quite a tell if a Boeing starts breaking down below 200 heading towards those lows from last October. At the same time, Boeing was going down, IBM was going up. You don’t see this very often. IBM gapping sharply higher yesterday, up nearly 10% on the day. Again, that has not happened for a long time. Now, what the market is worried about this morning is Intel. Intel is coming into Friday’s trading action on a buy signal. It may end the day on a sell signal, currently trading down over 10% in the pre-market. Now, just looking at what’s happened this week for the S&P 500 SPY, we’re up 1.16%. For the Nasdaq 100, we’re up 1.23%. For the TSX-60, we’re up 0.84%. At the same time, we’ve got crude oil up over 5% on the week, and this could be turnaround time for crude Well, natural gas, on the other hand, down over 3% so far this week, while gold is down a little over half a % on the week.

That could change on Friday with gold trading higher in the pre-market. Let’s get back to some daily charts, starting with the VIX, which traded up into the channel on Thursday, looking for a close on Friday above 13.92. Of course, if that were to happen, that would be negative for stocks. The DOW is on a buy signal right now, but just treading water up here, so it could be the first major indices to roll over. The S&P 500 had a new closing high while having an inside day, a day of indecision. The Nasdaq 100 also had a new closing high, but actually, dipped below the previous day’s low during the trading session. So could be a sign of weakness there with the semiconductors trading down over 1% on Thursday, closing below the previous day’s low. That is a bearish-looking bar. Then looking at the TSX-60, we closed higher on Thursday. No change in trend there. We’ve got the financials back on a buy signal moving up on Thursday. Onyx was the big winner in the TSX financials. While bank stocks are still treading water, the Royal Bank was actually unchanged on the day yesterday, while we’ve got the TD Bank back on a buy signal for the second day.

Energy stocks were the big winners on Thursday, being led higher by the US energy sector, up over 2% back on a buy signal, being led higher by Valero. On the TSX, we are back on a buy signal, and the big winner was Meg Energy, up over 4%. Then moving on to the US most actives, and these are the price volume weighted most actives with the Tesla Gaping lower yesterday. We talked about that, certainly closing well below $200 at $182.63. Then we had an inside day for NVIDIA and closing, new closing high for NVIDIA, new closing high for Advanced Micro Devices. Apple’s looking pretty sluggish up here. It’s still holding the $193.75 level, but it’s not looking like it wants to move higher at the moment, which is unfortunate with $200 our next price target. Then looking at Microsoft, new closing high there. Big down day for United Health already on a sell signal, so no change in trend. No change in trend for Humana, gapping lower as well. So congratulations if you’re short either of those stocks. Then we’ve We have Costco sitting right on the edge of a new daily sell signal. That would happen on Friday with a close below $677.74. And then CVS gapped lower yesterday already on a sell signal, so certainly no change in trend.

Moving on to the TSX, Most Active. Again, these are the price volume weighted most actives. And Royal Bank unchanged on Thursday. Things would change on Friday with a close above $133.68. Then we’ve still got Bank of Montreal on a buy signal. No joy for the Bank of Nova Scotia, still on a sell signal. Then we’ve got Fairfax closing higher yesterday. We’ve got Shopify still on a buy signal. That would change on Friday with a close below $105 and 84 cents. Then we’ve got the TD Bank, second day of a buy signal there. We’ve got Embridge still on a sell signal. No change. We’ve got Suncor back on a buy signal as of Thursday’s close. We’ve also got Canadian Natural Resources back on a buy signal as of Thursday’s close, and then a new closing high for Manulife. BCE rolled over yesterday, so it is back on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close. Okay, folks, that is all for Friday morning’s presentation. So far, it looks like we may see some selling at the open on Friday morning, but those economic numbers coming out at 8:30 could certainly help change the direction of the market.

Have a great day, folks. Have a great weekend. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Monday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Friday, January 26, 2024

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