Hello, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures are trading nicely above fair value. So, so far, it looks like everybody’s pretty happy. Now, we don’t have any major economic numbers coming out this morning.
We do have the Fed chairman speaking later today. He could certainly change the direction of the market. Commodities are trading a little lower so far this morning, but not enough that anyone’s going to notice. Now the VIX is still treading water here. That’s fine.
We don’t expect the VIX to move much lower from here. Things would change on Monday if we get the VIX back up above 12.90. Now there’s the Dow making a new high on Friday. Dow diamonds closing just above 400. We saw a new high for the S&P 500.
We had that pullback on Thursday, but we came back on Friday. There’s a new high for this move for the equilated S&P 500, certainly not a new all time high, but, you know, at least it’s trying. Then we had an inside day on Friday for the Nasdaq 100. We saw that pullback on Thursday. We had a new high for semiconductors on Friday.
There’s the Magnificent Seven ETF looking for a close on Monday below 47.19 to give us a sell signal. So we had that big pullback on Thursday. And, of course, when we look at the market cap of these particular stocks, you can see how huge they are compared to the rest of the market. So a pullback in these stocks could certainly damage the market dramatically if that money were to leave the stock market. But what we saw on Thursday was a rotation into all the other unloved areas of the market.
Now, we’ve saw huge moves up so far. A lot of it was probably short covering, but we’ll just have to wait and see if the market wants to continue to move higher seasonally. This is a bullish time of the year. It is the time for a summer rally. Well, I just had a big sneeze, and luckily we get to edit that out of the video.
Looking at the equal weighted Nasdaq 100, we made a new high on Friday, new high for this move for the next generation Nasdaq on Friday. And then looking at the Russell 2000, we gapped once again. Yes, there’s probably a lot of short covering going on in some of these stocks, but whatever it takes to get them to move higher and pull money in, well, that’s what’s going to happen. There we have the Russell 2000 making a new high. Looking at the canadian market, there’s the ishares for the TSX 60 making a new high on Friday.
We always talked about 34.38. We closed at 34.25 on Friday. So let’s see if we can get over 34.38 on Monday. Looking at canadian financials, they made a new high on Friday. Now the other day I was asking if the Royal Bank could break out above 150.
And on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday it traded above that level. So the next two lines are coming into play 153.13 and then 156 25. That playing field has now opened up. Then looking at the gold sector. So anything to do with mining has done very well over the past couple of weeks.
And gold stocks made a new high on Friday. And what’s not working well, telecom stocks are still in the doghouse. They did come back on Friday and the sector is back on a buy signal as of Friday’s close. Let’s move on and take a quick look at the TSX most actives. Now on Friday we started to see energy stocks pull back after having a good day on Thursday.
So we’ve got Canadian Natural Resources on a buy signal. Things would change on Monday if it were to close below $48.66. New high for this move for the TD Bank on Friday. We’ve got Cenovus on a buy signal right now as of Friday’s close. Then looking at TC Energy inside day on Friday.
Then we’ve got Enbridge moving up on Friday. So looking to see if we can take out the recent high. That would certainly be bullish for that stock. Then we’ve got Suncor still on a sell signal here. That would change on Monday with a close above $52.43.
Then we’ve got Baytek making a new high for this move, starting to trade above the high from back in late May. So that’s pretty bullish. Then we’ve got b two gold making a new high for this move. Moving up towards the highs from back in April. Then looking at Power Corp.
We’re still on a buy signal here. Moved up slightly on Friday, then looking at Telus. Telus back on a buy signal as of Friday’s close. Let’s finish off this morning’s presentation. Taking a look at the US most actives from Friday’s trading action.
Let’s start off with Nvidia and Nvidia put in a lower high on Thursday, traded into the channel and closed in the channel on Thursday and Friday. So anything that closes in the channel you’ve got to be suspicious of a potential trend change. There is certainly a mathematical possibility that we could close below $125.72 on Monday. Looking at Tesla we dipped into the channel on that Friday but did not close in it. We do need a close blow.
$229.48 on Monday. Then looking at Soundhound, we’ve had a couple of big updates here. You hit a couple of price targets at 625 on Friday. So congratulations. You got to lock in some profits there.
QuantumScape had a huge move up over the last few days, gapping higher on Thursday. If you had an order in at 6.25 it would have got filled at the open up here, up at the 7.03 level. And then we’ve hit two more price targets. 8.59 was a price target on Friday and we got as high as 8.63. So congratulations, you got to lock in some profits there.
No joy for American Airlines if you’re short that stock. You can continue to remain short. Then looking at Apple, we’re up here at new highs. No change in trend there. Then another big update day for Lucid.
Lucid’s hit a bunch of price targets. 4.30 was our next price target and we hit 4.32 on Friday. So cha ching, you got to lock in some profits there. Palantir still on a buy signal. No change in trend.
28.13 is resistance at the moment. If we can take out last week’s high then that would open it up to a move up to 31.25 with psychological resistance at $30. Then looking at Advanced Micro Devices were stalled up here at the 187.50 level. If we can break through that then $200 would be opened up. Then looking at Rivian.
Rivian making a new high on Friday 18.75 was our next target. We got as high as 18.85 on Friday. So if you had an order in up there, congratulations, it got filled. Okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. So far it looks like the market’s still pretty happy.
You’ve got the Dow futures up 200, got the Nasdaq futures up 100. So so far I think Monday is going to be a good day for the market. You have a great day and the next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.
Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Monday, July 15, 2024
