Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre-market this morning, things are fairly quiet. We do have a lot of economic numbers coming out today, especially jobless claims at 8:30. So they could certainly change the direction of the market.
Now, the us markets are closing early today and they’ll be closed on Thursday for the July 4 holiday. Canadian markets will be open both days, but very thinly traded, so not overly concerned about what happens on Wednesday or Thursday. Thursday in the Canadian market. Start off with some housekeeping. We’re going to do charts tonight.
We’ll do a weekend update on Saturday, and then Sunday we’ll do a members video. We won’t be doing any charts on Thursday night or any video on Thursday. Now, starting off looking at bitcoin, it is currently on a sell signal. It’s down $2,000 in the pre-market this morning. So that is the biggest mover in the pre-market so far.
The VIX is holding steady at close above 13.21. Would change things on Wednesday. The Dow had an inside day yesterday. It is certainly nowhere near a new all time high, whereas the S&P 500 Index made a new all time closing high yesterday. We’re still stuck to our price target.
If we can break away, then 5625 would be our next target for the Index. Similar situation for the Nasdaq 100. New closing high yesterday at 20,000. If we can break away above that, then 20,625 would be our next target for the Nasdaq 100 Index. Then looking at the SOX Index, we’re just $1 away from generating a new buy signal for the semiconductors.
Now, looking at the TSX 60, it closed higher yesterday. And you can see that we ran up and hit a 1312.50 the other day and pulled back. Well, we’re currently trading above that level in the premarket, according to Bloomberg, so there’s a good chance we could make a higher high on Wednesday. Now, crude oil ran up, tagged our next price target yesterday at 84.38. That was the high of the day before.
Pulling back, we are down a little in the pre market this morning, but not enough to get down to the previous day’s low. So yes, yesterday was a bearish reversal day for crude oil, but didn’t close below the previous day’s low. So that would be the first sign something new is happening. Otherwise, we’ll still look to see if crude oil can head up towards $87.50. Then looking at natural gas, it continues to move lower.
We were giving natural gas three points that it could find support. First of all was the uptrend line that didn’t work. Bottom of the Flypaper channel that didn’t work. And then the low from late May that didn’t work. So they really want to take natural gas down to retest the recent lows.
And of course if you’re short natural gas, you’re very happy about that. Now, the price of gold was down $5.50 yesterday. It is up in the pre market this morning. So we could end Wednesday on a buy signal for gold. And then looking at the XAU gold and silver Index currently trading water here in the channel, it could also end Wednesday on a buy signal.
Now here’s an ETF I was looking at as I was going through the commodity related ETF’s. This is Rare Earth and Minerals. It has been on a Sell signal for a month now. And certainly down at the bottom of the Panic Zones, Pressure Zone forming. This is pretty easy one to trade.
You can see the early warning signals that went off. You can see the Pressure Zones that went off and the, the Index, the ETF continued to move higher. We’re at a situation right now where we are very oversold and unfortunately the pros have no interest in taking control. Now even if they did, if you look at where we’re trading right now and where the flypaper channel is, that would be about a 10% move higher, which isn’t a lot when you look at other opportunities out there. So just be aware that, yes, this is a setup.
Yes, there is a potential for a buy signal to show up at some point in the not so distant future. It’s just, it looks like the flypaper channel will probably cap any up move in this particular area of the market. So yeah, there are opportunities, but not necessarily ones you need to take. Then looking at the Canadian market, and this was rather odd, yesterday the most actives were filled with financial stocks and that doesn’t usually happen. Most of the time they’re commodity related.
But here we are with the TD Bank on a buy signal. No joy for TC Energy. Second day of a sell signal there. And notice that we put in a lower high and now we’re putting in a lower low. So that’s a bearish chart pattern for TC Energy.
Then CIBC. Second day of a sell signal there holding the recent low. Then looking at the Bank of Nova Scotia, we’re looking for a close above 63.07 on Wednesday to give us a buy signal. Canadian Natural Resources still on a buy signal. No change there.
We’ve got Power still on a buy signal. No change. No change for Manulife. And Manulife may be headed towards $37.50 as our next price target. We still haven’t been able to really clear the highs from back in May, but it certainly looks like investors want Manulife to continue to move higher.
Then looking at Enbridge, fourth day of a buy signal there. Then looking at the Royal Bank. 6th day of a buy signal for the Royal bank. And then no joy for BCE. Making a new low for this move on Tuesday.
Then looking at the us market and we’ve got Nvidia, the most actively traded stock inside day yesterday. Looking for a close on Wednesday above $127.79. There’s Tesla making a new high. And you know, we were looking for it to break out above 87.50. It certainly did that.
Now it’s heading towards 234.38 and then possibly 250. Of course, when it got out above 8750, it also started to break away from the Flypaper channel. And you can see the previous high up there above 250. That could certainly be a potential target. If it can get through the next two targets, then we’re looking at Rivian.
Still on a buy signal. No change there. No change for Apple. Apple heading towards 225. That’s our next target.
Of course, you can do the math. And 237.50 would be the next target above that if Apple continues to break out and make higher highs. Advanced microdevices back on a buy signal as of Tuesday’s close. Sirius still on a buy signal here, trying to get above 313. Got as high as 312 yesterday.
And if it can do that, if it can break out above that, then 352 would be our next target for serious. Then looking at Marathon. Marathon on a buy signal right now, even though bitcoin is continuing to move lower. And then we’ve got Ford breaking out, making higher highs here for this move. And last up this morning, we’ve got Amazon.
Now, Amazon finally hit 200 and look at what happened. We hit 200 just before 02:00. And then that’s all we could get out of Amazon. So 200 was our next price target. We got pretty close to it a couple of days ago, and I’m not sure where your order was, but if it was at 200, congratulations.
It got filled on Tuesday. And you can see our next target is 20 625 for Amazon. Okay, folks, that’s all for this morning’s presentation. So far. It’s pretty quiet out there.
Jabba’s claims numbers could certainly change the direction of the market. It is a holiday shortened day in the US, which will make it a very quiet day in the Canadian market. And then the US markets, of course, are closed on Thursday for the July 4 holiday, wishing everybody a great July 4. And if you’re north of the border, just enjoy the lull in the market and don’t focus too much on what’s going on. And it looks like the weather is going to be great, so have a great time and next time you’ll hear my voice will be on Sunday.
Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
