Hello, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning ahead of those PPI numbers coming out at 8:30, we’ve got stock index futures and commodities trading higher. Now next week is a holiday shortened week. The Canadian market is closed on Monday. Us markets closed on Thursday. I’m not sure what days we’re going to be open just yet. I’m shooting for Tuesday or Wednesday at least. And then we’ll come back Friday and do a weekend update. But yeah, not dates have not been confirmed, but we’re shooting for Tuesday or Wednesday. We definitely won’t be open Monday or Thursday. And then Friday, of course, we do our weekend update, so stay tuned. We’ll get back to you as soon as we know exactly what our schedule is. Now starting off with the VIX, the VIX moved down yesterday. Things would change on Friday with a close above 13.37. Now when the VIX is on a sell signal, that’s supportive for higher stock prices. Obviously, not all stocks move up when the VIX is on a sell signal. But you know that the mood of the market is still bullish.
People are still looking to buy when the VIX gets on a buy signal and starts trending higher. You know that the mood of the market has changed and people aren’t as enthusiastic to be buyers and they’re looking for ways to sell into the market. So right now the VIX is on a sell signal. That’s supportive for higher stock prices. And so far the futures are pointing higher in the pre market. Now looking at the Dow, it was up yesterday. It is still on a buy signal here. So no change in trend. The big winner on the Dow yesterday was Salesforce trading up into the open gap. Then we have Boeing back on a buy signal as of Thursday’s close. And then we’ve got a big up move for Amazon. Then we saw Amazon heading towards our $200 target and it ended up getting up to $199.84. So it may hit $200 today, but as I’ve always recommended, put in your orders just below those price targets to get them filled. Looking at what didn’t work on the Dow yesterday, Visa was the big loser. So financial stock back on a sell signal. Goldman Sachs back on a sell signal.
And then we had Merck trading lower yesterday but did not close below the lower channel line even though it traded down to the previous low. Then looking at the S&P 500, we were up by a smidge yesterday. We’re going to continue moving higher at the open this morning. Big winner supermicro, still on a buy signal, up sharply in the premarket this morning. Then Palo Alto Networks continued to move higher yesterday, hitting our next price target of 343.75. So congratulations if you had an order in there. Now, Walgreens was the big loser yesterday and it’s been in the doghouse all year. You see the elongated Pressure Zone across the bottom of the screen on the Panic Zone chart. That is definitely something to avoid. And you can see it broke down below the Flypaper channel back in January and has yet to recover. So this looks like a candidate to be removed from the index at some point in the not so distant future. Then looking at the equal weighted S&P 500, we’re still on a sell signal here. So that has not changed. So you can see the impact of those big cap tech stocks on the index, then moving on to the Nasdaq 100.
We were up just a little over a quarter of a percent on the day. The big winner was Zscaler. So that stock is trading up towards the high from a couple of weeks ago and it is still on a buy signal. No change in trend there. No change in trend for Datadog. Moving up, hitting our next price target. So congratulations. It actually traded through two price targets yesterday. Congratulations to anyone owning Datadog. Now. Adobe made a new high for this move yesterday. It popped a couple of weeks ago and there was no buy signal ahead of it popping. So that’s rather unfortunate. It’s not something I would chase after. It has a big gap higher like that. It could certainly continue to move higher from here. I’m just not going to be chasing a stock like that. 562.50 is our next target. And then just above that is the top of the open gap. That could be a target then looking at what didn’t work. Micron, another chip stock back on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close. PDD Holdings new low for that stock on Thursday. And then we’ve got Constellation Energy, second day of a sell signal there.
And then Nvidia. Nvidia had an inside day yesterday down a little, over a little under 2%. So no change in trend for Nvidia. Then looking at the Equal Weighted Nasdaq, it traded down to the lower channel line on Thursday. So a close below $122.96 would give us a sell signal on Friday. Now, I saw an article yesterday about sector rotation, and Tech stocks have been trading sideways for the past few days. We’ve seen some selling in Semiconductors and then we’ve seen Software pop, so there could be some money coming out of Chips going back into Software. Right now, looking at the Canadian market, the iShares for the TSX 60 4th day of a buy signal. No change there. The big winner was Kinross. Even though gold, the gold wasn’t really doing anything yesterday, that was the big winner, followed by uranium. Cameco trading up into the channel. A close above 71.50 would give us a buy signal on Friday. Then Dollarama, still on a buy signal. No change there. Manulife, still on a buy signal. Trying to break out above the recent high. And then, of course, we’ve got resistance from the high from back in May.
What didn’t work yesterday? Bank of Montreal. New low for the Bank of Montreal on Thursday. Then we saw a small pullback for first quantum. Still on a buy signal. Did not close below the previous day’s low, so not concerned there. Then we saw Canadian Pacific pull back yesterday. Did not close below the previous day’s low, so no concern. Then looking at the Vanguard Canada ETF, it’s back on a buy signal. As of Thursday’s close. The big winner was MDA, and no indication that that was going to pop Thursday. So not something I would chase. And then we’ve got a wall of resistance up here that could certainly be a challenge to get over, even though you see a pop like that. The stock was up over 13% on the day, so not something I would chase. Then we’ve got BlackBerry and Novagold back on buy signals as of Thursday’s close. Cargojet made a new high for this move on Thursday, heading towards $14. Nice run for the last month for Cargojet. What didn’t work? International petroleum back on a sell signal. We’ve still got Ivanhoe trading in the channel. No change there and no change for lundeen pulling back into the channel on Thursday.
Now, Rogers made a new low on Thursday, and, you know, I had high hopes for some of these stocks in the Communications area. If we go back and look at what happened in May, we made a high. Then we made a higher high, we made a higher low. And so all that was setting up to be a bullish change in chart pattern. But unfortunately, we couldn’t get above the high from back here. That acted as resistance. And unfortunately we rolled over, and here we are now making new lows for Rogers. Now, the big winner over the last week has been the tech sector. And when we look at the market cap, we know that BlackBerry generated a buy signal yesterday. It is a little less than 100th the size of Shopify. So Shopify is almost 100 times bigger than BlackBerry. So a movement at BlackBerry isn’t really going to change an index like this very much or the TSX itself. So it’s Shopify is still the big elephant in the room. Now we see that Hut8 is the big winner on the week and it is up nearly 100% over the past couple of weeks through the month of June.
So quite an incredible ride. It made a new high yesterday and then pulled back, but certainly no change in trend there. We did hit our next price target at 21.88 trying to get to 25, got as high as 23.80 so we could certainly hit 25 on Friday. But congratulations to anyone who got some shares sold at 21.88. Now Shopify is still on a buy signal. It was up yesterday so a close on Friday below 87.33 would give us a new sell sign signal. So far it doesn’t look like that is going to happen. Let’s finish off looking at commodities and crude oil was up yesterday trying to break away from 81.25. If we can do that, then 84.38 is our next target to the upside. Natural gas going in the opposite direction, starting to break down below the uptrend line and trying to break down below the flypaper channel. Our next target would be the low from a couple of weeks ago back in May, so that could certainly be a potential area of support for natural gas. We were looking at the grains the other day for fun. Corn made a new low yesterday.
We saw a new low for soya beans. We had a new low for wheat on Wednesday and then we came back on Thursday but still no buy signal there. Then looking at bacon. Bacon still on a sell signal while hamburger made a new high for this move before pulling back. So I’m sure there’s some spread traders out there buying bacon, selling hamburger right now, hoping that that spread contracts. Then looking at copper. Copper made a new low for this move on Thursday. No joy for gold. Gold trading up into the channel yesterday. It is trading higher in the pre market this morning. So we may end June on a new daily buy signal for gold. Not looking so good for silver coming into Friday morning but it will probably trade higher on Friday. Okay folks, that is all for today’s presentation. We’re coming into a weekend, we’re coming into month end. Those are usually have a bullish bias to them. Next week’s a holiday shortened week. That’s got a bit of a bullish bias as well. So the market should be fairly thinly traded next week. Not looking for a lot of excitement. We got the PPI numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning.
They could certainly change the tone of the market. We’ll just have to wait and see. Otherwise, it looks pretty sunny out there. Enjoy the day. Enjoy your weekend. I’ll be back on Sunday looking at protect your portfolio for those people who subscribed and otherwise. Yeah, we’ll talk to you again sometime next week.
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Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Friday, June 28, 2024
