Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are down across the board, while commodities are trading higher in the pre market on Friday morning. Well, Thursday turned out to be a big turnaround day for the market, being led higher by some of those magnificent seven stocks, especially Apple and Nvidia. But we also saw new highs from Alphabet and Amazon. We’ll take a look at those in a couple of minutes. Let’s start off looking at a couple of weekly charts. And coming into Friday, I like to get a sense of, you know, how much damage has been done. Is there going to be long term money coming out of the market over the weekend and on Monday? And so far that doesn’t seem to be the case. Yes, the VIX is on a weekly buy signal that’s long term bearish for stocks, but the market really hasn’t taken advantage of that or acted on that. And we’ve got the S&P 500 down just a 10th of a percent, bouncing off the upper channel line. Looks like an inside week for the Nasdaq 100, up a little over 1%.
And then we’ve got the Sox index up nearly 2% having an inside week. So, yeah, we’ve had a lot of volatility this week, but it really doesn’t show up on the weekly charts for the Canadian market. We’ve had a small pullback in crude oil having an inside week. Remember, 87.50 was our next area of resistance, and so far that is holding us in check. On the other hand, gold continues to move higher this week, and it’s up again in the premarket on Friday morning. And that can help the Canadian stock market. Now looking at a couple of daily charts, there’s the VIX making a new high on Thursday and then completely losing it and actually closing lower on the day. So on the daily charts, if the VIX were to close below 14.29 on Friday, that would give us a new daily sell signal that would be supportive for stock prices across the board. Now the Nasdaq 100 is back on a buy signal as of Thursday’s close. Not sure how much we’re going to be able to get out of the Nasdaq at the present time, but we’ll just have to wait and see.
Now, the reason the NASDAQ was up yesterday had a lot to do with these stocks in the Magnificent Seven. There’s Alphabet making a new high on Thursday. There’s Amazon making a new high on Thursday and then Apple dropped the AI phrase yesterday, artificial intelligence. And look at what it did to Apple. Stock up over 4% on the day and that is a huge move for Apple and a huge move for the stock market. Meta had a very quiet day yesterday. No change in trend there, no change in trend for Microsoft. Still not able to take out the recent high. And then we’ve got Nvidia back on a buy signal as of Thursday’s close. Nvidia put in a lower high a couple of weeks ago and then a low and so that’s a bearish chart pattern. We’ll have to see if that changes going forward. Tesla is still on a buy signal here but not going anywhere. It’s been in the channel the past couple of days and so if Tesla were to close below $168.26 on Friday, that would give us a new daily sell signal. So far we have not been able to get to four blue dots here and so that is a bit of a concern.
A lot of times I add Shopify to the Magnificent Seven list and come up with a Magnificent Eight list. But so far Shopify is not participating in any rally at the present time. And it looks like we want to go back down and test retest the low from back at the start of the year. Now Friday is all about bank earnings and so far they’re starting to come out. And that’s one of the reasons that the stock index futures are trading lower this morning. When we look at the major us financial ETF’s and we start out with the financials themselves, you can see we made a new low yesterday, closed lower. All of these ETF’s are range bound at the moment. You can see we ran up to resistance. We’ve pulled back to support. Now we’re looking to see if support holds. If 40.63 doesn’t hold, then 39.06 is our next target. When we look at the bank ETF, we made a new low yesterday and bounced off support at 43.75. Again, we’re looking to see if that holds. And for the regional banks, we actually closed slightly higher yesterday after making a new low for this move.
And again we’re trying to hold support here. And again, if we break, 43.75 is our next target to the downside. Now looking at the individual players, Blackrock made a new low yesterday before closing slightly higher. Then we’ve got Citigroup and Goldman Sachs both on sell signals, but both hold holding up fairly well when you compare it to something like State street which made a new low for this move. Yesterday and then Wells Fargo. Wells Fargo has been trading sideways, treading water here for a while now since the start of March, and 56.25 has been acting as support. When we look at what the pros and the public have been doing, you can see when the pros stop buying. They have not been aggressive sellers at all. You can tell that by what the stock price has been doing. Right now we’re intertwined and they have been certainly waiting for this earnings number to come out and let’s see how they finally react by the end of the day. Now, Morgan Stanley had a huge down day yesterday. It generated a sell signal on Wednesday. So you come in Thursday morning, you sell it at the open at 91.72, and that saves you from having to run it all the way down to 86.84.
So we had the sell signal and then we had the big down day. Another financial stock yesterday that was down. The insurance company. Now here’s a stock I’ve never looked at before. Globe Life is an insurance company in the financial sector and it dropped out of the sky yesterday. It’s been on a sell signal for a month now. And there we are, down over 53% on Thursday. Quick look at the Canadian market, the iShares for the TSX 60 sitting right on the edge of a new daily sell signal. We had energy stocks pull back yesterday, nearly 2%. Given what’s been happening with them, that’s not a big deal. Then we had gold stocks up nearly 1.5% again on Thursday. Then Canadian financials second day of a sell signal there. We’ve got the TD bank closing higher on the day, so trying to find support at the February lows. The National Bank is back on a sell signal, but nobody really wants to sell it at the moment. And then the Royal Bank traded down to the lower channel line yesterday, so a close below $136.56 would give us a new daily sell signal on Friday.
Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. So far. It looks like the market wants to do a little bit of selling in the premarket now. Even though it’s all the financials that are reporting today, it is the Nasdaq that is the weakest in the premarket so far. So we’ll just have to see how things change turn out. Enjoy the rest of your day. Have a great weekend. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Monday morning.
Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Friday, April 12, 2024
