Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. And thanks for joining me for breakfast. In the pre market this morning, things are very quiet out there. Stock index futures are trading right around fair value.
Gold is trading higher by $10 at the moment, while crude oil is down $0.89. So not expecting a lot to happen at the open on Monday morning. And we certainly don’t have any economic numbers coming out this morning. Let’s start off looking at a weekly VIX. And we’re back on a buy signal as of Friday’s close up, over 23% for the week.
And of course, we are looking for lower prices at the moment and will remain bearish on the market as long as the VIX does not close below 13.04 this coming Friday. Now, looking at a daily chart of the VIX, or what a lot of people call the fear index, we generated a buy signal on Tuesday. That was ahead of the big down day, which was on Thursday. Thursday we did see some money come back into the market on Friday, but for the most part, it was an inside day. It was an inside day for the VIX.
And we’re going to remain short term bearish on the market as long as the VIX does not close below 13.56 on Monday. Now the lower chain line is curling up and will trail the VIX higher as long as the VIX does not close below it. So when we come back here tomorrow, that breakdown point is going to be higher than it is today. Now, we often associate the VIX with a market sell off or a downtrend in the market. It can often lead to market turbulence.
And that is certainly what we saw on Thursday and Friday. Of course, we’ve been talking about a potential time shift. The spike in the VIX that seasonally happens in March did not happen this year. Maybe it’s going to happen in April. We’ve certainly seen the start of it last week.
If that continues, then we may actually see a time shift from the month of March to the month of April. Now, looking at weekly charts of the major indices, we can see the Dow pulled back just under two and a quarter percent and traded back in the channel. So the potential of a weekly sell signal this week, more strength in the S&P 500, more strength in the Nasdaq 100, and then looking at the ishares for the TSX 60, new closing high for those ishares. And of course, the canadian market is being held up right now by the wonderful world of commodities now, looking at a monthly chart of the ishares for the TSX 60, you can see our next target is 34.38. And that is on the weekly and daily charts as well.
So it’ll be a significant number if we can get up and over that level. And that could take us up to 3750. Now, what worked last week? Well, the big winner was the silver miners, up over 13%, while gold miners in the US were up over 7% percent. In Canada, they were also up over 7%.
And that is highly unusual that both were up exactly the same percentage. Then, looking at the energy sector, it was up in Canada nearly 6% for the week. So it was commodities leading the market higher. What didn’t work? Well, us retail was the big loser on the week, down nearly 5.5%.
We’ve got biotech stocks in the US rolling over, back on a sell signal, down nearly 5% on the weekend. Regional banks have been treading water for a few weeks now and they were down over 4% on the week, but certainly no new change in direction. We’re still on a weekly sell signal here. Then looking at us banks, they were down 3.67% on the week, still on a buy signal here. And then we’ve got us pharmaceuticals back on a weekly sell signal.
So Biotech’s pharmaceuticals not doing well at the moment. Now, looking at the crypto world, and we had a pullback in both Bitcoin and Ethereum. No change in trend on the weekly charts, and both are trading higher in the pre market on Monday morning. Now, looking at commodity prices, a new high for this move for gold. Gold was up over $100 on the week, heading towards $2375.
As our next target. We saw silver up over 10% on the week, heading towards 28.1250 is our next target for silver. Then looking at crude oil. Crude oil has run up to our next price target of $87.50.
If we can take that out, we’ve got resistance from back in the early part of last fall, late summer, and if we can take that out, then 93.75 does come into play. But so far, 87.50 is holding us in check. Now, natural gas is not participating at the moment. Yes, it was up a little over 1%, but the pros are still not taking control of natural gas, so it will still linger down at this level. And that is unfortunate, but that’s just the way it is for the time being.
Let’s move over to daily charts. And again, Friday was mostly an inside day for the Dow. It traded higher, but within the previous day’s bar. First thing we’re looking for here is a close above Thursday’s high. That certainly didn’t happen on Friday.
That’s also true for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. The Russell 2000 made a slightly lower low on Friday. And microcap stocks had an inside day, so no change there. Now, us energy stocks, just like canadian energy stocks, were up on Friday, making a new high. Then, looking at us financials, we had a sell signal on Thursday.
Inside day on Friday. This coming Friday is going to be a big day. There’s lots of earnings numbers from this sector coming, coming out this coming Friday. Then moving on to the Canadian market. There’s the TSX making a new high on Friday.
A big reversal for the TSX 60 from Thursday to Friday. New high for the mid caps, new closing high for small caps. And we had the venture exchange up on Friday, so everything’s looking pretty bullish at the moment. Of course it is. The energy sector leading us higher, followed by the gold sector.
And then we’ve got income trust making a new closing high on Friday. New closing high for materials, of course, anything mining related. A lot of the stocks in the sectors overlap each other. Some of the gold stocks are in materials and metals and mining and vice versa. So with the price of gold going up, that’s helping all of those sectors.
And then we’ve got industrials on a sell signal right now. Came back a bit on Friday. We’ve got the infotech sector having an inside day on Friday on a sell signal, trying to hold support from the lows from early February. We’ll have to see if that continues. Then, looking at the telecom sector, which was up on Thursday and Friday, it is incredibly oversold.
We’ve seen Panic Selling. We’ve driven way back down to try to find support in 2023. You can see the elongated Pressure Zone across the bottom of the screen. You can see here. That was the time and place.
We were looking for this sector to make a stand and try to run up. So once it got down to support and bounced, it looked like we were going to head back up. But that rally failed fairly quickly and we’ve come back down. If we’re going to move higher from here, then it wouldn’t be surprising to move back up to what was previously support. We’ll now act as resistance.
So that is certainly a possible move for this sector over the coming month or so. We’re almost done here. Apple is down on the premarket this morning, and our next target to the downside, if we start closing below $168,75 would be $162.50. We’ve got Nvidia on a sell signal that would change on Monday with a close above $917.16. So the question is, does Nvidia start going back up or does it start coming down to trail stocks such as advanced Micro Devices, which has been on a sell signal for month now and does not look like it’s going to generate a buy signal on Monday.
Shopify is trying to hold $100. You can see that we did trade below that level back at the start of March, and we did certainly trade below that back at the start of the year. So if we do break down and don’t find support there, then $87.50 would be our next target to the downside. But there are certainly possibilities for support before we get there. And then looking at Tesla.
Tesla is on a sell signal right now. A close above $175.08 would give us a buy signal on Monday. It is trading up three or $4 in the pre market this morning. So it was down $6 and change on Friday. So it may turn out that Monday could be an inside day for Tesla.
Okay, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Of course, today is solar eclipse, and if you’re going to get the opportunity to see it live, congratulations. We’re certainly going to be out checking it out this afternoon. If you don’t have the proper glasses, do not look up. It may not blind you, but it could certainly damage your vision.
And you may not be able to drive for months before you recover it. And there’s certainly no guarantee that you will recover your vision. So don’t be stupid. Today is not the day to take chances with your eyesight. Have a great day, folks.
Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning. And at that time, we’ll walk through the most actively traded stocks on both sides of the border.
Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Monday, April 8, 2024
