Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In this presentation, we’re going to take a closer look at the Canadian stock market. But before we do that, we’ll take a quick look at the us market from Monday’s trading action. The VIX traded up to the upper chain line yesterday. We’ll be looking for a close above 12.96 on Tuesday to give us a buy signal for the VIX. Now, we saw a new high yesterday for the S&P 500. Our next mathematical target for the spy is 562.50. Looking at the pros, they’re still in control. Don’t look like they want to give up control on Tuesday. Looking at the equal weighted S&P 500, we’re still trading in this channel here and really no enthusiasm for the overall market right now. You can see the public is actually in control of the equal weighted S&P 500 ETF. Now compare that to the Nasdaq 100 and you can see that the pros are still happily in control and we’re trying to get to $500 for the triple Q’s on Tuesday. What worked yesterday? The big winner was semiconductors being led higher by actually intel, which was up on the day and it gapped higher yesterday.
Now it is coming up to the top of an open gap up there at 34.38. If you look to the left, you can see that gap over there. And that could be a potential target on Tuesday and possibly the end of the road for this move for intel. Now moving over to the Canadian market, the major indices are all on buy signals right now. The TSX and the TSX 60 both dipped into the channel yesterday. Mid caps trading above the channel, small caps closing above the channel, and micro caps had a reversal yesterday, but only down 1.31%. So no major change there. All those major indices are still on daily buy signals. Now, Consumer Staples have been a big winner over the past couple of weeks and made a new high yesterday. The big winner over the last five days has been George Weston, followed by Jamesons, and then followed by Loblaws, which is trading up at the previous high. But that is a new closing high for loblaws. Then, looking at the Energy sector, we pulled back to the lower channel line yesterday. So certainly the possibility of a sell signal on Tuesday. There’s Canadian Natural Resources closing in the channel.
We’ve got Athabasca trading right down through the lower channel line yesterday. So a close below $5.15 on Tuesday would give us a sell signal for Athabasca. Baytex closing above the upper channel line. So no concern there coming into Tuesday and we’ve already got Suncor on a sell signal. So that was the second day of a sell signal for Suncor. Now looking at Financials, we had an inside day yesterday. Canadian Banks had an inside day. We’ll take a closer look at some of those stocks in a minute. The Gold sector is still on a buy signal here. No change for Agnico, Eagle or for Alamos. And then we’ve got B2Gold still on a buy signal. No change there. And a new high for Kinross on Monday. Let’s finish off this morning’s presentation taking a look at the most actives. Now last night I did the most actives by price volume. So they’re not just necessarily the most actively traded stocks, they’re the most actively traded stock by dollar amount. And when we look at this list, a couple of things you’ll notice is first we just have two tens, we have a zero and a one.
So some very extremely sold off stocks. And most of this list is financials. We’ve got a couple of commodity related stocks but for the most part they are financials. Now compare that to the US market and you’re not going to find any financials or commodity related stocks. This is all high tech and you can see there’s a whole bunch of tens in there. So it’s pretty easy to see the difference between the Canadian and the US market at this particular time. Certainly Canada does not have a deep team of technology stocks that it could certainly compete with the us market at this time. So starting off with the Royal Bank inside day yesterday, trying to get up over 150. Then looking at TD Bank and inside day on Monday, no change in trend there. No change in trend for the Bank in Nova Scotia. Still on a daily sell signal. No change there. And then Canadian Natural Resources trading in the channel, no change in trend inside day for power on Monday. Then we have a new low for TC Energy breaking down below support and then looking to head towards the $50 level. And that would be down to the bottom of an open gap if we continue lower from here.
But that is a very bearish looking chart. We recently put in a lower high, now we’re putting in a lower low. So yeah, that’s a bearish looking chart. And speaking of bearish looking charts, Bank of Montreal, no joy there. Then looking at Manulife. Manulife still on a buy signal here. Our next mathematical target for manual life is $37.50. Then CIBC trading in the channel. No change in trend there. And our last chart this morning is the National Bank and it had an inside day yesterday, so no change in trend there. Okay, folks, that’s all for this morning’s presentation. Looks like we need to be on guard for additional sell signals in the energy sector. The gold sector seems to be holding up fairly well. Financials are a mixed bag at the moment, with the World bank and Manulife holding the torch and leading the market higher with a bunch of other financial stocks really dead in the water at the moment. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.
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Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Tuesday, July 9, 2024
