Hello everyone, it’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. And in this weekend’s video, we’re going to take a look at Canadian Gold Stocks. We’re going to start off looking at the price of gold. Then we’ll work our way into the major gold ETF’s and then finally we’ll take a look at some gold stocks at the end of the presentation. Now this week we saw the price of gold hit a new high and then pulled back on Friday.
We had a lot of reversals on Friday and that is a concern going into Monday’s trading action. We need to see more downside to confirm that a top has been put in place. But Friday was the first step in putting in a top for the gold sector and looking at the price of gold itself. If we go back to the start of March, we were looking to see if we could get over a resistance at $2125. If we could do that, then $2250 and $2375 would come into play.
And that’s exactly how things worked out. Now, we have traded above the $2375 level, but we closed on Friday at $2374.10. And so we’re right at our price target. So that is certainly a measured move for the price of gold. Of course, if we can take out this week’s high, then $2500 certainly comes into play.
And that is a big round number and markets love big round numbers. Now moving from weekly charts to daily charts, on Monday we’ll be looking for a close just below $2,300 for the price of gold. To give us a new daily sell signal for the price of silver. We’ll be looking for a close below $26.66. And of course, if we do not break down and close below those levels on Monday, those lower channel lines will continue to move higher daily.
Now, taking a look at the price of silver, if we go back a month, you can see we were trying to break out above $25. If we could do that, then $26.56 would be our next target. If we can take out $26.56, then $28.1250 and then $2968.75, those would be our next targets to the upside. And we hit both of those targets this week. So here we are, we are sitting just above the $2812.50 level and looking to see if we can make higher highs this coming week.
Now looking at gold mining, ETF’s the most popular one in Canada is the iShares XGD and it has had quite a run since the buy signal at the start of March. Here we are making a new high on Friday, and we put in a bearish reversal day on Friday as well. So this could be the top. But we’ve had several bearish reversal signals since this rally started. We need confirmation.
Bearish reversal signals are one day events or one week events, depending on if you’re looking at daily or weekly charts. And of course they need to be confirmed. So we need to see fall through to the downside on Monday to tell us that we’ve put in a top here for the gold miners. So on Monday, we’re looking for a close below $18.84 to generate a new daily sell signal for the XGD. Now, we ran up to the top of our projected trading range on the daily charts at $20.31.
We hit that target this week. If we go to the weekly chart, you can see $21.88 would be our next target to the upside. Back in 2023, we got as high as $21.67. So we didn’t hit that next target back in 2023. So that would be our next target to the upside.
Before you can get to $21.88, you got to break through $21.67. So that certainly hasn’t happened yet. Now, the way that I would prefer to play this sector without being a stock picker is to do the Horizons Betapro 2x bull ETF on Monday, we’re looking for a close below $15.42. Now, at some point when we do get a sell signal in the bull ETF, we’ll be looking for a buy signal in the Bear ETF. And on Monday that would be a close above $4.41.
Not expecting that to happen. And in this situation, the upper chain line is going to continue to move lower daily until we close above it. And so when we come back here on Tuesday, that level will not be $4.41. It’ll probably be $4.38, $4.39 if the market continues to move higher and the bare ETF continues to move lower on Monday. Next up, let’s take a look at the gold mining stocks.
And I’m just going to look at a handful. There is, I think, 50 canadian gold mining stocks in our database right now. The most actively traded gold stock on Friday was B2gold. And you can see the bearish reversal signal here. This is a stock that hasn’t really kept up with the rest of the sector.
You can see the pros did take control, but we didn’t get anywhere. And then they actually gave up control. We’ll look at some other stocks in a couple of minutes and you can see that was certainly not the case. So the pros not interested in this stock at this time. It is certainly on a buy signal and had a nice run up over the past two weeks.
We had a big reversal day on Friday. On Monday, we’re looking for a close below $3.72 for B2gold. We ran up and tagged $4.10 on Friday. So if you had an order in up there that got filled even as the stock came back down and closed at $3.98. Now, I’m sure a lot of the traders out there were hoping B2gold could end the week above $4, but unfortunately, that was not the case.
Now, there’s no comparing B2gold to Kinross, which has looked much more like the index itself and has had a beautiful run up here on Monday. We’re looking for a close below $8.44 to give us a sell signal. You can see the pros were aggressively taking control of this stock and running it up. Now they look like they may have stopped buying and may actually be selling into strength at the moment, but we’ll just have to wait and see if that selling continues. We were trying to get to $9.38.
We got as high as $9.37 on Friday. So again, it’s best to give those price targets a little bit of wiggle room. Then, looking at the elephant in the room, the biggest gold stock, of course, is Barrick Gold, and it’s had a nice run up as well. You can see it traded sideways for a couple of weeks, actually generated a sell signal, and then reversed two days later. So here we are.
We actually traded off the map and above our projected trading range of $23.44. If you flip over to the weekly price target chart, you would have seen the next price target was dollar $25. We hit that this week, and so, cha ching, you got to lock in some profits there. We did trade above $25, and so if we can start trading above this week’s high, then $28.13 would certainly come into play. Is that a realistic target?
Well, back in early 2023, just about the same time as right now, we got up to $28.19. So a year ago, we’re up at $28.19. That is certainly a realistic target if the market wants to keep going. But you can see what happened after we hit the $28.19 Level. We came down two lines.
And so if this week, if it was $25 and we’re coming down two lines, we would expect to go back to $18.75, but that down move has not started yet. Then looking at OceanaGold, we’re looking for a close on Monday. Below $3.07 to give us a new daily sell signal. We were trying to get to $3.52. We got as high as $3.50 on Friday.
And then looking at the pros and the public, this got off to a slow start. Then the pros started to take control in the middle of March and the stock was able to move up nicely. Then looking at IAMGOLD were looking for a close on Monday below $4.75. Looking at New Gold, were looking for a close below $2.34 on Monday. Again, a really nice separation here between the pros and the public.
Now looking at Osisko, this is a stock that’s had a rough time here you can see the sell signal that we generated and then reversed a couple of days later. So this stock has not been that loved. On the way up on Monday we’re looking for a close below $2.86 and we’ve traded in the channel for the last three days. So this stock is looking pretty weak. When you compare that to the other big elephant in the room, Agnico Eagle, still trading and closing above the upper channel line on Monday.
We would need a close below $81.73 to give us a sell signal. And last up, Pan American Silver. So not a gold stock. A silver stock hitting a new high on Friday also hit the next the top of our projected trading range at $28.13. That was also our next weekly target.
And so if we can start climbing out above $28.13 and then $31 25 does come into play. Okay, folks, that is all for today’s presentation. Taking a look at the TSX Gold Tndex itself, we are still projecting higher prices here, but we are coming up to the previous high which peaked in May of 2023. And then if we go back to 2022, we actually peaked in April. So we’re seeing a nice seasonal move here and it could be coming to an end.
We certainly do not have an early warning signal up here on the weekly chart just yet, but this is the time and place where you want to be selling into strength because we know that stocks fall three times faster than they rise. So this is the time and place to lock in some profits. But you should never completely liquidate a position until you actually get kicked out with an official sell signal. And for most gold stocks, we don’t have sell signals coming into Monday’s trading action. Okay, folks, that is all for today’s presentation.
Enjoy the rest of your weekend. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Monday morning.
Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Sunday, April 14, 2024
iShares S&P/TSX Global Gold Index ETF (XGD.TO)
BetaPro Canadian Gold Miners 2x Daily Bull ETF (HGU.TO)
BetaPro Canadian Gold Miners -2x Daily Bear ETF (HGD.TO)
Barrick Gold (ABX.TO)
B2Gold (BTO.TO)
IAMGOLD (IMG.TO)
New Gold (NGD.TO)
OceanaGold (OGC.TO)
Osisko Mining (OSK.TO)
