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Morning Market Outlook 20260925

The Stock Market Looks Strong—But These Numbers Tell a Different Story

The market is showing increasing signs of underlying weakness despite the S&P 500 and NASDAQ continuing to hold up, largely because of strength in a small group of large-cap AI and technology stocks. The breadth figures are particularly concerning: Thursday produced only 61 new 52-week highs versus 378 new 52-week lows in the U.S. market. The Dow Industrials, Dow Transports and Dow Utilities are also extremely weak, reinforcing the broader deterioration beneath the major indexes.

Investors should watch for a breakdown in the leading technology stocks, as their continued strength is currently helping support the broader market. Bond prices remain under pressure while yields move higher, putting additional pressure on interest-rate-sensitive areas. The TSX is forming a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, while sectors such as utilities, consumer discretionary and financials remain weak. Key individual stocks including Nvidia and Apple have specific downside levels that could trigger new sell signals.

Stephen Whiteside
Friday, September 25, 2026