This weekend update warns that escalating global conflict in the Middle East and expanding trade tensions are creating major risks for the global economy and stock markets. Shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea threaten oil, fertilizer, helium, and semiconductor supplies, potentially triggering a severe global recession. Rising tariffs and commodity shortages could worsen manufacturing slowdowns and accelerate inflation.
The stock market outlook remains bearish as the VIX continues rising and major U.S. indexes remain on weekly sell signals. The Magnificent Seven are now leading markets lower, institutional stress is growing, and the Japanese carry trade and Middle Eastern investment flows are fading. Commodity-heavy Canadian markets may outperform the U.S., but the overall outlook suggests continued downside risk and the need for strong portfolio protection.
Stephen Whiteside
