This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are higher. The market’s being led by the Dow, while the Nasdaq is dragging its feet this morning. In the world of commodities, we’ve got crude oil higher while gold is down a dollar in the premarket. Now, yesterday was all about the big shiny object about NVIDIA, and it looked like it was going to be a buy the rumor, sell the news type situation. That’s what I said the other day, so I didn’t want to chase it and I thought it would probably turn out like Amazon did, and Amazon is back on a sell signal right now. We did pop at the open and not as high as we were trading in the premarket. In the premarket, we were trading around 506, 508 when I was looking and we ended the day just creeping over the $500 level before pulling back. We’ve been seeing the pros selling at the close, the public buying at the open. We’ve had a couple of bearish reversal days. Unfortunately, we actually ended the day higher. It’s not a true bearish reversal day.
We didn’t close lower on the day. We didn’t close below the previous days low. It’s wishy washy at the moment, but it does look like we put in a major top. We’ll just have to see what the market does over the next few days. And of course, we’re coming in to the end of the month and the long weekend. Now, at this time yesterday morning, we were looking at the Royal Bank trade up into the channel. It didn’t get that high after the market opened. But while we were looking at the Royal Bank to help push the TSX higher, after that, the TD came out and did push the TSX lower yesterday. So the Royal Bank could only do what it could do. The biggest loser on the TSX 60 yesterday was First Quantum followed by the TD Bank and then followed by Shopify. Shopify needs a close below 7,340. A lot of the signals that were generated on Tuesday were actually unwound yesterday. Then looking at the Tillray, it is back on a sell signal and biggest loser on the TSX. On the Dow 30, it was Boeing followed by Walgreens Boots. Then on the Nasdaq-100 and the S&P 500, the biggest loser was Dollar Tree followed by Advanced Micro Devices.
Those were the biggest losers yesterday. Looking at the VIX, it had another wild day. It actually traded below the lower channel line before reversing and closing higher on the day. On Friday, we’re looking for a close below $15.93. We had a bearish reversal day last week. It took us up to the 18.75 level before reversing. Yesterday, we were down to 15.63. The market is going to continue sharply lower if the VIX can break out above the 200 day moving average. Moving on to the major stock market indices and looking at the semiconductor ETF, we’re still waiting for a buy signal here. We had a wild day yesterday outside reversal day for the Semiconductors. Technology stocks generated a buy signal on Wednesday. We had a lot of reversals yesterday, including with Apple. And so looking for a close below 166.78, we actually closed at 167.01, so not enough to give us a Sell signal. There’s Communication Services, a lot of tech stocks in that sector as well, but still no joy here. We’re still on a Sell signal. Then looking at the QQQ’s, the QQQ’s did a complete outside reversal yesterday, looking for a close below 362.62, and we closed at 361.22. So back on a Sell signal, we go.
The Dow broke down yesterday, making a new low, another wild day there. We had a wild day for the S&P 500, no joy, still on a sell signal. Russell 2000, the Microcaps, still on a sell signal, no change there. On the TSX, the TSX Composite actually had an inside day on Thursday, while the TSX 60 traded a little higher above the previous day’s high and then pulled back and closed lower on the day. Looking at Canadian financials, looking pretty similar to the TSX 60 itself, you can see we traded above the previous day’s high before pulling back, closing lower. Similar situation for Canadian banks. Looking at US financials, we traded up into the channel and then closed lower on the day. Banks, on the other hand, both the big banks and the regional banks actually ended the day slightly higher on the day. Certainly no change in trend. Looking at the TSX most active starting at the top with Manulife up second day in a row. Not enough to give us a buy signal right now, but a nice bounce off the recent low, which was higher than the low from June. That could be a bullish set up going forward, but we don’t have enough to do anything on Friday morning.
Looking at Enbridge still on a Sell signal, no change there. Second day of a Sell signal for Cenovus. Then looking at TC Energy, no change in trend there. Then looking at BC, BCE is back on a buy signal as of Thursday’s close. Then looking at Barrick, did not generate a buy signal over the past couple of days, closing lower on Thursday. Then looking at the US most actives, and we’ve covered some of them so far, but there’s Tesla. Tesla still in the channel. A no change in trend for Tesla still waiting for a buy signal. Palantir had a big reversal day yesterday, still on a sell signal. Johnson & Johnson has been week all week, no change there. Apple back on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close. Then looking at Amazon still on a sell signal, still waiting to see if we can close the open gap. Then looking at Intel, Intel did not generate a buy signal this week, back below the lower channel line. Then Ford still on a sell signal. General Motors still on a Sell signal. Rivian still on a sell signal. No change there. And last up my favorite car company would be Toyota, but it’s a hard stock to trade.
It’s a Japanese based stock, of course, and all the information is coming out of Japan, which means that what we see over in North America is a delayed reaction to what’s already happened in Japan. And that’s why you get a lot more gaps on the screen than you would for a North American based stock. So it’s a hard stock to trade, still my favorite car company, but not going to trade it. Okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Stock index futures are trading slightly higher in the premarket this morning. We’re waiting for news out of Jackson Hole to push the market one way or the other. The type of buying we’re seeing in the premarket this morning is just a little cleanup from yesterday. It is certainly not going to change the market’s direction on Friday. Enjoy the rest of your day. Enjoy your weekend. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Sunday.
Stephen Whiteside
Friday, August 25, 2023
